Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/3 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+73.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +36.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -17.2 | +35.6 | -8.5 | -9.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 54% | 17% | 16% | +3.1 | -4.7 | -4.0 | +5.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 50% | 16% | 20% | -11.1 | -16.0 | +38.0 | -10.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 33% | 43% | 15% | -3.3 | +2.3 | +1.2 | -0.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 8% | 34% | 43% | 15% | -7.3 | +0.2 | +11.0 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 5% | 30% | 56% | 9% | -25.1 | +31.9 | -8.0 | +1.2 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 63% | 33% | 4% | -1.3 | -1.1 | -3.4 | +5.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 68% | 27% | 5% | +0.8 | -6.3 | +5.3 | +0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,500 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 57% | 37% | 6% | -0.6 | -5.6 | +10.5 | -4.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 44% | 52% | 5% | -3.2 | +36.3 | -28.4 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | +0.2 | -1.1 | -27.1 | +28.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | +1.8 | +2.3 | -4.1 | 0.0 |