Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/9 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+65.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.0 | +0.5 | +6.0 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 22% | 25% | 29% | 24% | -1.4 | +34.5 | -0.8 | -32.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 51% | 23% | 8% | -2.6 | +4.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 55% | 23% | 7% | -0.5 | +3.6 | -4.6 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 14% | 58% | 19% | 8% | +16.9 | -11.6 | -0.1 | -5.2 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 27% | 48% | 20% | 6% | -2.8 | +12.3 | -3.6 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 60% | 15% | 4% | -2.5 | -0.5 | -1.4 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Tomohiro Honda | 19% | 61% | 14% | 5% | -22.2 | +0.4 | -0.3 | +22.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 9% | 63% | 15% | 13% | +0.5 | +20.6 | -19.1 | -2.0 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 5% | 87% | 4% | 5% | -5.2 | -4.3 | +12.2 | -2.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 86% | 7% | 4% | -2.2 | +3.7 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 89% | 6% | 4% | -4.8 | -4.8 | -9.0 | +18.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 87% | 4% | 8% | -5.3 | +2.5 | -5.8 | +8.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 92% | 0% | 8% | -11.4 | +5.5 | +6.3 | -0.3 |