Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/10 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in South 2: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 24,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +66.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 7,800 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +22.9 | -7.0 | -6.7 | -9.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 6,000 | 43% | 20% | 19% | 18% | +13.0 | -5.6 | -2.0 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 55% | 15% | 16% | 14% | -2.5 | -3.7 | +5.9 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 53% | 13% | 19% | 15% | +13.7 | -10.8 | -0.3 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 68% | 6% | 15% | 10% | +7.7 | -3.9 | -2.8 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 77% | 5% | 9% | 9% | +1.2 | +19.6 | +1.3 | -22.1 |
| South 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,800 from Kenji Katsumata | 80% | 8% | 9% | 3% | +8.8 | -0.6 | +1.5 | -9.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 87% | 5% | 7% | 1% | -8.5 | -7.7 | -11.3 | +27.5 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 24,000 | 83% | 6% | 6% | 5% | -29.8 | +66.2 | -19.9 | -16.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 32% | 62% | 2% | 3% | +21.7 | -16.6 | -1.9 | -3.1 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 66% | 31% | 1% | 1% | -0.4 | -0.2 | -3.6 | +4.2 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,700 | 69% | 30% | 0% | 2% | -27.7 | +33.0 | -10.8 | +5.5 |