Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/14 Game 2
Kanako Maruyama finished 1st (+80.5pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kanako Maruyama tsumo 18,000, which moved Kanako Maruyama's expected points by +47.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +0.8 | -2.5 | +1.8 | 0.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -17.3 | +47.8 | -16.5 | -14.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 65% | 12% | 14% | -5.3 | +2.9 | +2.1 | +0.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Kanako Maruyama ron 1,500 from Kazunori Takizawa | 8% | 67% | 13% | 12% | +0.3 | +6.8 | +0.7 | -7.8 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 74% | 11% | 8% | -0.3 | +2.7 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 6% | 76% | 10% | 8% | +23.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -22.9 |
| East 3 | Kanako Maruyama ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 12% | 77% | 9% | 3% | +1.1 | +14.1 | -3.5 | -11.6 |
| East 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 4,000 | 7% | 89% | 3% | 1% | -3.7 | +0.4 | +9.6 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 5% | 91% | 3% | 0% | -8.2 | +1.7 | +1.2 | +5.4 |
| South 2 | Kanako Maruyama ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 1% | 96% | 3% | 0% | -1.1 | +14.3 | +1.6 | -14.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 2% | 0% | -0.7 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -5.3 | -9.1 | -7.7 | +22.1 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 98% | 1% | 0% | +8.9 | +0.4 | -6.2 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +9.2 | +0.2 | -3.8 | -5.5 |