Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/16 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +47.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | -12.9 | -2.6 | -7.3 | +22.7 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 16% | 21% | 21% | 42% | 0.0 | -3.3 | +11.7 | -8.5 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 17% | 19% | 28% | 36% | -0.2 | -14.4 | -3.1 | +17.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 15% | 11% | 23% | 52% | +2.9 | -2.4 | +5.2 | -5.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 10% | 28% | 45% | -14.6 | -7.2 | +29.4 | -7.5 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 1,100 | 6% | 6% | 57% | 32% | -1.3 | -7.1 | +3.0 | +5.4 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 4% | 1% | 62% | 33% | +1.3 | -13.7 | -20.1 | +32.6 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 85% | -1.8 | -4.1 | +47.2 | -41.3 |