Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/16 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +46.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -13.5 | -4.5 | -5.3 | +23.3 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 16% | 21% | 22% | 42% | +2.2 | -1.9 | +8.2 | -8.5 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 18% | 20% | 27% | 35% | -0.3 | -13.7 | -0.3 | +14.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 11% | 25% | 47% | +6.0 | -5.5 | +2.7 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 10% | 26% | 45% | -17.8 | -6.2 | +31.1 | -7.1 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 1,100 | 5% | 6% | 59% | 31% | -1.4 | -7.4 | +3.0 | +5.7 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 3% | 1% | 62% | 33% | +2.0 | -13.6 | -20.4 | +32.1 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 84% | -2.3 | -3.9 | +46.8 | -40.5 |