Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/16 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+80.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Ken Sonoda tsumo 16,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +49.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | +8.2 | -2.9 | -0.7 | -4.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 31% | 23% | 23% | 23% | -2.0 | -18.3 | -0.6 | +21.0 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,000 | 28% | 13% | 21% | 38% | +6.9 | -6.2 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 7,800 | 34% | 9% | 21% | 36% | -9.7 | -6.0 | +24.6 | -8.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 8% | 39% | 29% | -1.4 | +1.9 | +4.2 | -4.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 8% | 43% | 25% | -5.1 | -0.6 | +6.5 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 8% | 49% | 24% | +21.9 | -4.2 | -9.1 | -8.6 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 37% | 6% | 39% | 18% | -24.9 | +19.9 | +6.6 | -1.6 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 18% | 14% | 50% | 17% | +53.4 | -14.4 | -22.1 | -16.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 16,000 | 69% | 5% | 19% | 6% | -22.2 | -13.1 | -14.3 | +49.5 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 42% | 3% | 14% | 41% | -7.4 | +6.2 | -0.6 | +1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 35% | 6% | 14% | 46% | -2.0 | -10.7 | -3.0 | +15.6 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 25% | 0% | 10% | 65% | +28.8 | -10.6 | -6.2 | -12.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 68% | 0% | 1% | 32% | -13.6 | -0.9 | -1.2 | +15.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 36% | 0% | 1% | 64% | -30.7 | +0.1 | +3.7 | +26.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.3 | -13.0 | +0.2 | +13.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -15.3 | +0.4 | +21.0 | -6.1 |