Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/16 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+80.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Sonoda Ken tsumo 16,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +45.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +8.5 | -0.3 | -3.9 | -4.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 30% | 24% | 23% | 23% | -2.2 | -17.2 | +0.1 | +19.3 |
| East 2 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,000 | 28% | 13% | 22% | 36% | +6.8 | -5.2 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 7,800 | 33% | 11% | 21% | 35% | -9.3 | -7.2 | +23.4 | -6.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 25% | 8% | 38% | 30% | -2.1 | +3.6 | +2.4 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 24% | 9% | 40% | 27% | -3.3 | -2.0 | +8.2 | -2.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 8% | 49% | 23% | +19.5 | -4.7 | -8.0 | -6.8 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 35% | 6% | 40% | 19% | -22.6 | +19.1 | +6.1 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 13% | 50% | 18% | +52.7 | -14.9 | -23.6 | -14.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 16,000 | 70% | 6% | 17% | 8% | -22.8 | -10.1 | -12.5 | +45.4 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 43% | 4% | 14% | 39% | -7.0 | +3.0 | +0.8 | +3.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 5% | 15% | 45% | -4.4 | -9.8 | -3.1 | +17.4 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 22% | 0% | 10% | 67% | +31.3 | -10.4 | -7.7 | -13.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 68% | 0% | 1% | 31% | -14.9 | -1.0 | -0.9 | +16.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 34% | 0% | 1% | 66% | -29.7 | +0.3 | +3.6 | +25.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.2 | -13.1 | +0.1 | +12.8 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -15.9 | +0.4 | +21.3 | -5.8 |