Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/17 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+71.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 4 honba: Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +22.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,800 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +15.9 | -0.1 | -17.0 | +1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 23% | 15% | 26% | +4.1 | -2.6 | +4.3 | -5.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,500 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 38% | 23% | 17% | 22% | +8.4 | -1.9 | -6.2 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 7,700 from Sayaka Kayamori | 46% | 21% | 14% | 20% | +22.4 | -0.2 | +0.7 | -22.9 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 66% | 15% | 11% | 8% | +22.9 | -0.3 | -26.6 | +4.0 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 8% | 2% | 5% | +3.9 | -2.7 | +1.6 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 6 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 88% | 7% | 2% | 4% | +17.1 | -6.6 | -5.3 | -5.2 |
| East 1, 7 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 95% | 3% | 1% | 2% | -6.5 | -4.9 | -6.9 | +18.2 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 93% | 2% | 1% | 4% | -1.8 | +11.1 | -5.3 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 93% | 4% | 1% | 3% | -1.6 | -9.6 | -3.3 | +14.5 |
| East 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 18,000 from Aiko Hinata | 93% | 2% | 1% | 5% | -28.3 | -2.5 | +28.0 | +2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 74% | 7% | 5% | 15% | +4.9 | +0.6 | -2.2 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Makoto Sawazaki | 79% | 6% | 3% | 11% | -1.7 | -16.7 | +1.3 | +17.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 75% | 3% | 2% | 20% | +1.2 | +5.7 | -3.0 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 3% | 2% | 14% | -5.6 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 76% | 4% | 3% | 18% | -9.0 | +36.1 | -13.2 | -13.9 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 18% | 2% | 14% | -3.4 | +2.5 | +1.4 | -0.5 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 62% | 20% | 2% | 16% | +17.6 | -4.8 | -0.7 | -12.1 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 87% | 6% | 1% | 6% | -1.3 | -7.7 | -9.2 | +18.1 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 87% | 2% | 0% | 11% | +13.4 | +10.7 | +0.6 | -24.7 |