Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/24 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+56.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +30.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -0.7 | +20.4 | -20.1 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 39% | 14% | 25% | -1.0 | -2.0 | +2.3 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 40% | 14% | 24% | -5.5 | -3.9 | -12.2 | +21.6 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 34% | 8% | 41% | -10.4 | -14.2 | -6.1 | +30.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 8% | 15% | 4% | 74% | +8.4 | -6.6 | -2.3 | +0.5 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Kanako Maruyama | 9% | 10% | 3% | 77% | -5.4 | +11.6 | -6.9 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 14% | 2% | 79% | -9.5 | +30.8 | -6.3 | -15.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 2% | 46% | 1% | 51% | +8.4 | -11.4 | -2.0 | +5.0 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 31% | 1% | 64% | +7.2 | -5.4 | -5.9 | +4.1 |
| South 4 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 4,000 | 5% | 20% | 0% | 75% | -6.7 | -5.8 | +4.8 | +7.7 |