Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/28 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+79.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -13.9 | +1.0 | +14.5 | -1.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 25% | 34% | 25% | +2.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | -8.8 | +14.0 | -5.1 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 12% | 36% | 28% | 24% | +1.0 | -35.9 | +38.9 | -4.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 8% | 64% | 18% | -1.5 | +2.2 | -2.9 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000 | 10% | 10% | 62% | 18% | -6.7 | -6.6 | +33.8 | -20.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 2% | 95% | 2% | -0.6 | +1.4 | -2.9 | +2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 2% | 2% | 93% | 3% | -29.1 | +30.3 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 6% | 92% | 2% | -6.9 | +34.1 | -18.2 | -9.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 37% | 62% | 1% | -0.1 | -20.0 | +20.5 | -0.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 5% | 94% | 1% | +0.4 | -2.0 | -0.7 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,300 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | -1.3 | -0.1 | +5.0 | -3.6 |