Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/28 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+79.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +37.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -15.4 | +1.2 | +13.0 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 15% | 25% | 34% | 26% | +5.7 | -0.4 | -4.2 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Suzuki Taro | 19% | 25% | 31% | 25% | -8.2 | +13.0 | -1.3 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 14% | 34% | 31% | 21% | -0.8 | -35.1 | +37.4 | -1.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 9% | 8% | 65% | 18% | -2.5 | +2.5 | -2.4 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 16,000 | 9% | 9% | 63% | 18% | -7.2 | -6.9 | +34.0 | -19.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 2% | 2% | 95% | 1% | -0.4 | +3.1 | -4.0 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro | 2% | 3% | 93% | 2% | -29.0 | +28.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 5% | 93% | 2% | -6.5 | +35.1 | -18.6 | -10.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 37% | 61% | 1% | +0.7 | -19.9 | +19.8 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 6% | 93% | 1% | +0.3 | -2.2 | +0.2 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,300 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 0% | 2% | 98% | 1% | -2.0 | -0.1 | +4.8 | -2.7 |