Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/28 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+55.9pt). The game was decided in East 3: Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +50.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -0.6 | +21.5 | +0.8 | -21.8 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 40% | 24% | 13% | -4.5 | -12.5 | -5.8 | +22.7 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000 | 20% | 31% | 22% | 26% | -17.4 | -16.9 | +50.0 | -15.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 10% | 14% | 63% | 14% | +1.9 | +0.8 | -2.4 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 14% | 63% | 13% | -13.0 | -15.2 | -20.4 | +48.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 8% | 35% | 51% | -3.3 | +3.7 | -4.4 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 9% | 30% | 55% | +13.5 | -6.3 | -1.8 | -5.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 8% | 30% | 52% | +9.2 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 7% | 29% | 51% | -11.6 | -4.6 | +18.2 | -2.0 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 5% | 5% | 47% | 44% | +4.9 | -5.8 | -4.0 | +5.0 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Ken Sonoda | 6% | 1% | 40% | 53% | -0.3 | +1.1 | +14.2 | -15.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 1% | 64% | 30% | +2.5 | -6.3 | +0.8 | +3.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 1% | 64% | 31% | +3.4 | +1.0 | +3.8 | -8.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 0% | 70% | 24% | -3.9 | -1.9 | +3.2 | +2.6 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 3% | 0% | 74% | 23% | +11.7 | -2.5 | -9.3 | +0.2 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,600 from Aki Nikaido | 10% | 0% | 67% | 22% | -7.9 | -2.6 | +16.8 | -6.3 |