Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
3/21 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+40.7pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +28.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 5,200 | 23% | 26% | 26% | 25% | -5.9 | -4.8 | +13.6 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 23% | 36% | 23% | -0.3 | +34.8 | -3.4 | -31.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 16% | 48% | 28% | 8% | -6.1 | -2.4 | +7.4 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 45% | 34% | 8% | +4.0 | +0.8 | -4.9 | 0.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 47% | 30% | 8% | +3.6 | -4.7 | -3.1 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 18% | 43% | 29% | 10% | +28.9 | -4.6 | -0.5 | -23.8 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 37% | 35% | 26% | 2% | -4.2 | +28.6 | -25.1 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 23% | 67% | 8% | 2% | +20.4 | -8.3 | -0.4 | -11.6 |
| South 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 6,000 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 0% | -3.7 | -4.1 | +9.6 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 43% | 47% | 10% | 1% | +2.5 | +5.5 | -17.8 | +9.8 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 45% | 54% | 0% | 1% | +3.7 | -0.9 | +2.1 | -4.9 |