Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
3/21 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+40.7pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +28.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -10.9 | +0.3 | +13.6 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 19% | 24% | 35% | 23% | +0.4 | +30.8 | -2.0 | -29.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 16% | 46% | 30% | 8% | -5.6 | -0.7 | +8.0 | -1.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 12% | 44% | 36% | 8% | +3.9 | -0.5 | -5.1 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 46% | 32% | 8% | +3.8 | -4.5 | -2.5 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 42% | 30% | 10% | +28.7 | -1.0 | -3.9 | -23.9 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 38% | 36% | 24% | 2% | -4.2 | +25.8 | -23.5 | +2.0 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 23% | 68% | 8% | 2% | +20.5 | -7.5 | -1.9 | -11.1 |
| South 3 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 6,000 | 46% | 49% | 4% | 0% | -3.7 | -4.1 | +10.6 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 44% | 47% | 9% | 0% | +2.6 | +5.1 | -17.4 | +9.7 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 45% | 54% | 0% | 1% | +3.2 | -0.7 | +1.8 | -4.3 |