Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
3/22 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+58.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +28.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 5,200 from Rio Tojyo | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -14.2 | -3.3 | +1.5 | +16.0 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 17% | 22% | 24% | 37% | -3.0 | +1.5 | +12.8 | -11.3 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 23% | 34% | 29% | +15.7 | -3.6 | -6.8 | -5.4 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 25% | 21% | 28% | 26% | -4.0 | -0.6 | +0.3 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 22% | 20% | 29% | 28% | -4.3 | +1.9 | +28.8 | -26.4 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,700 | 16% | 18% | 57% | 9% | -5.3 | -2.6 | +14.2 | -6.2 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 6% | 13% | 75% | 5% | -32.1 | +33.7 | -5.6 | +4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 35% | 61% | 4% | -1.4 | -4.8 | +3.6 | +2.5 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 26% | 69% | 5% | -2.8 | -2.7 | +0.7 | +4.8 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 19% | 75% | 6% | +3.1 | -6.7 | +9.9 | -6.3 |