Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
3/24 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+69.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +30.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 1,600 from Sayaka Okada | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -3.9 | +1.2 | -0.5 | +3.2 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Aiko Hinata | 23% | 25% | 24% | 28% | +0.4 | +19.4 | -0.8 | -19.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada | 22% | 38% | 23% | 17% | +17.8 | -0.1 | -16.7 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 37% | 12% | 16% | -10.8 | -10.1 | +30.7 | -9.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 29% | 29% | 30% | 12% | -6.0 | -7.9 | +17.7 | -3.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,900 | 22% | 22% | 47% | 9% | -3.0 | -6.6 | +12.4 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 18% | 16% | 59% | 7% | -0.9 | +11.2 | -7.5 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 24% | 52% | 7% | -2.6 | -1.4 | +6.8 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,600 from Takaya Matsugase | 15% | 21% | 59% | 5% | -12.8 | +10.9 | +3.9 | -2.1 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 26% | 65% | 4% | -4.7 | -13.6 | +23.7 | -5.4 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 3% | 95% | 2% | +2.6 | +1.2 | -0.8 | -2.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 1% | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.6 | +4.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | +0.1 | +4.7 | +5.0 | -9.8 |