Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
3/24 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+69.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +29.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 1,600 from Okada Sayaka | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -1.1 | +1.0 | -3.4 | +3.5 |
| East 2 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 7,700 from Hinata Aiko | 25% | 25% | 23% | 28% | -0.9 | +20.2 | -0.2 | -19.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Okada Sayaka | 23% | 39% | 22% | 16% | +16.8 | -1.9 | -14.3 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 37% | 14% | 15% | -9.0 | -10.9 | +29.3 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 29% | 28% | 31% | 12% | -8.5 | -4.5 | +16.2 | -3.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 3,900 | 20% | 24% | 45% | 11% | -3.5 | -5.6 | +13.1 | -4.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka | 17% | 17% | 58% | 8% | -0.8 | +9.1 | -7.7 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 17% | 24% | 50% | 9% | +0.6 | -2.4 | +8.9 | -7.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,600 from Matsugase Takaya | 15% | 20% | 62% | 4% | -14.7 | +11.8 | +4.3 | -1.4 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 26% | 66% | 3% | -3.7 | -14.6 | +22.5 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka | 1% | 3% | 95% | 1% | +2.2 | +1.3 | -1.5 | -2.0 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 1% | 97% | 1% | -0.2 | +4.6 | +5.0 | -9.4 |