Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2021-22 Semifinals

3/24 Game 2

Hori Shingo finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in East 1: Hori Shingo tsumo 18,000, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +46.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Hori Shingo● Ooi Takaharu● Nikaido Rumi● Takamiya Mari0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Hori● Ooi● Nikaido● Takamiya
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHori Shingo
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Nikaido Rumi
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
Nikaido Rumi
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
East 1Hori Shingo tsumo 18,00026%25%25%24%+46.8-17.5-16.5-12.9
East 1, 1 honbaDraw65%11%12%13%+2.6+1.9-1.9-2.7
East 1, 2 honbaTakamiya Mari tsumo 8,00066%13%11%11%-8.9-9.3-4.4+22.5
East 2Draw58%10%11%22%+9.4-5.4-4.3+0.3
East 3, 1 honbaNikaido Rumi ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo69%5%7%20%-33.3-2.4+37.7-2.0
East 3, 2 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu36%7%31%26%+3.9-2.2-4.2+2.6
East 4Ooi Takaharu ron 2,600 from Takamiya Mari40%7%25%27%-0.8+5.6+1.2-5.9
South 1Hori Shingo tsumo 12,00040%10%27%23%+31.5-7.6-11.3-12.6
South 1, 1 honbaDraw74%4%12%10%-1.9+2.1+4.3-4.6
South 2, 2 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Nikaido Rumi75%4%13%8%+4.3-6.2-6.7+8.6
South 3Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Nikaido Rumi83%1%8%8%+5.0+31.8-32.5-4.3
South 4Hori Shingo ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu93%1%0%6%+7.7-14.8-6.1+13.1

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)