Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
3/28 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+51.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 4 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +19.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | -0.5 | +2.9 | -2.7 | +0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 6,400 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 28% | 22% | 25% | -19.1 | +17.5 | +1.8 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 13% | 40% | 23% | 24% | -9.9 | -1.9 | -6.4 | +18.2 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 37% | 18% | 37% | +18.0 | -2.5 | -11.3 | -4.2 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Aiko Hinata | 15% | 36% | 13% | 36% | +1.4 | -17.5 | -0.4 | +16.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 21% | 12% | 50% | +5.8 | -4.1 | -1.8 | +0.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 18% | 11% | 52% | +5.2 | +1.9 | -2.3 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 21% | 10% | 46% | +9.0 | -3.9 | -1.5 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 31% | 18% | 10% | 42% | +19.8 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -7.6 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 49% | 13% | 7% | 31% | -0.4 | +28.3 | -2.3 | -25.6 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 50% | 29% | 6% | 15% | +9.4 | -2.5 | -1.1 | -5.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 22% | 6% | 9% | -1.6 | -1.2 | +5.0 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 62% | 22% | 8% | 8% | +3.3 | -2.3 | -22.9 | +21.9 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 14% | 0% | 17% | +11.0 | -2.0 | +12.2 | -21.2 |