Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
3/28 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+51.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +19.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +0.9 | +1.5 | -2.3 | 0.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 6,400 from Nikaido Aki | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -18.8 | +20.0 | +0.7 | -1.9 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Nikaido Aki | 15% | 41% | 22% | 22% | -13.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 | +19.1 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 37% | 18% | 37% | +19.6 | -2.9 | -12.0 | -4.6 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Hinata Aiko | 16% | 37% | 13% | 34% | +0.7 | -17.4 | -1.7 | +18.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 21% | 12% | 51% | +5.8 | -2.5 | -0.7 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 18% | 19% | 13% | 50% | +6.6 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 23% | 19% | 11% | 47% | +7.4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,000 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 43% | +19.2 | -4.8 | -7.7 | -6.6 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 46% | 14% | 7% | 33% | +0.4 | +27.9 | -0.3 | -27.9 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki ron 1,300 from Kayamori Sayaka | 48% | 31% | 7% | 14% | +10.0 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -5.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 63% | 23% | 5% | 9% | -2.3 | -1.0 | +4.1 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 60% | 23% | 7% | 10% | +4.3 | -2.4 | -22.3 | +20.4 |
| South 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000 | 68% | 15% | 0% | 16% | +11.2 | -2.7 | +12.2 | -20.7 |