Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
3/29 Game 2
Nobuhiro Ishibashi finished 1st (+51.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Arisa Date, which moved Nobuhiro Ishibashi's expected points by +57.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -24.0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | +24.1 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 11% | 23% | 24% | 42% | +1.1 | -4.1 | -15.0 | +18.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 16% | 14% | 60% | -1.2 | -5.0 | +2.6 | +3.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 9% | 13% | 14% | 64% | +7.4 | +2.7 | -10.5 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 11% | 14% | 9% | 66% | +36.7 | -31.1 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
| South 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 4% | 6% | 60% | -8.4 | +8.8 | -4.1 | +3.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 4% | 5% | 69% | -0.8 | +6.3 | -1.3 | -4.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 5,800 from Kenji Katsumata | 23% | 8% | 6% | 64% | +1.6 | +19.0 | -3.6 | -17.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 19% | 7% | 44% | -1.1 | -20.5 | +23.0 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 7% | 16% | 44% | +6.7 | -2.5 | +2.1 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 39% | 7% | 17% | 37% | -4.6 | +57.2 | -40.4 | -12.1 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 27% | 53% | 0% | 20% | -4.4 | +22.3 | -0.2 | -17.7 |