Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series

3/29 Game 2

Nobuhiro Ishibashi finished 1st (+51.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Arisa Date, which moved Nobuhiro Ishibashi's expected points by +57.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Nobuhiro Ishibashi● Sayaka Okada● Arisa Date● Kenji Katsumata0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Nobuhiro● Sayaka● Arisa● Kenji
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSayaka Okada
1st-place chance
Nobuhiro Ishibashi
1st-place chance
Arisa Date
1st-place chance
Kenji Katsumata
1st-place chance
Sayaka Okada
Expected pt change
Nobuhiro Ishibashi
Expected pt change
Arisa Date
Expected pt change
Kenji Katsumata
Expected pt change
East 1Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada26%25%25%24%-24.0-1.4+1.4+24.1
East 2Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Arisa Date11%23%24%42%+1.1-4.1-15.0+18.0
East 3Exhaustive draw10%16%14%60%-1.2-5.0+2.6+3.6
East 3, 1 honbaSayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Arisa Date9%13%14%64%+7.4+2.7-10.5+0.4
East 4Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi11%14%9%66%+36.7-31.1-2.8-2.8
South 1Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 5,20030%4%6%60%-8.4+8.8-4.1+3.7
South 2Exhaustive draw22%4%5%69%-0.8+6.3-1.3-4.2
South 2, 1 honbaNobuhiro Ishibashi ron 5,800 from Kenji Katsumata23%8%6%64%+1.6+19.0-3.6-17.0
South 2, 2 honbaArisa Date tsumo 8,00031%19%7%44%-1.1-20.5+23.0-1.4
South 3Exhaustive draw32%7%16%44%+6.7-2.5+2.1-6.4
South 3, 1 honbaNobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Arisa Date39%7%17%37%-4.6+57.2-40.4-12.1
South 4Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata27%53%0%20%-4.4+22.3-0.2-17.7

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)