Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
3/29 Game 2
Ishibashi Nobuhiro finished 1st (+51.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 12,000 from Date Arisa, which moved Ishibashi Nobuhiro's expected points by +56.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -21.6 | -3.6 | -0.6 | +25.8 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Date Arisa | 12% | 20% | 23% | 44% | +0.2 | -1.5 | -13.4 | +14.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 10% | 16% | 14% | 60% | -3.7 | -2.6 | +3.1 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,600 from Date Arisa | 9% | 15% | 14% | 62% | +9.4 | -1.4 | -10.6 | +2.6 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 12% | 12% | 10% | 66% | +36.6 | -30.0 | -4.2 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 5,200 | 31% | 4% | 5% | 61% | -8.2 | +9.0 | -2.9 | +2.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 22% | 5% | 6% | 67% | -1.9 | +6.8 | -2.0 | -3.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 5,800 from Katsumata Kenji | 22% | 8% | 6% | 64% | +2.2 | +18.1 | -2.8 | -17.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 44% | -2.7 | -18.7 | +22.8 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Draw | 30% | 9% | 16% | 45% | +8.1 | -3.7 | +3.3 | -7.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 40% | 7% | 19% | 35% | -3.0 | +56.5 | -41.4 | -12.1 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 30% | 52% | 0% | 18% | -6.0 | +22.9 | -0.5 | -16.4 |