Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
3/31 Game 2
Hori Shingo finished 1st (+72.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +32.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -9.7 | -4.4 | -6.8 | +20.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 17% | 21% | 21% | 41% | -3.4 | +8.3 | -1.3 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 15% | 27% | 20% | 38% | -2.1 | +3.0 | -2.2 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 13% | 28% | 19% | 40% | -2.6 | -8.4 | -0.7 | +11.8 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,100 | 12% | 21% | 17% | 51% | -2.6 | +8.7 | -5.6 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 11% | 26% | 13% | 51% | -2.7 | +2.3 | +4.1 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 3,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 10% | 29% | 15% | 46% | -16.1 | -2.0 | +15.2 | +2.9 |
| South 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 24% | 22% | 52% | -4.4 | -9.2 | +14.3 | -0.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 16% | 33% | 50% | +3.1 | -4.9 | +8.8 | -7.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 2% | 14% | 45% | 39% | -18.6 | -3.4 | +32.5 | -10.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hori Shingo ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 3% | 84% | 14% | -2.7 | -3.0 | +6.2 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 89% | 11% | -1.2 | +3.2 | +0.2 | -2.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Hori Shingo ron 1,300 from Ooi Takaharu | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% | -0.3 | -4.1 | +6.7 | -2.2 |