Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/4 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +53.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 4,800 from Sho Shiratori | 24% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +14.4 | -13.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,800 | 35% | 16% | 24% | 25% | +10.6 | -0.5 | -4.1 | -5.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 17% | 20% | 20% | -1.2 | -4.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 14% | 24% | 21% | -8.5 | -14.5 | +27.1 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 7% | 45% | 16% | -1.6 | +21.4 | -11.1 | -8.7 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 32% | 16% | 37% | 15% | -10.0 | -8.7 | -8.6 | +27.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 13% | 30% | 31% | -2.2 | +5.7 | +1.8 | -5.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 16% | 32% | 26% | -18.5 | +32.7 | -8.1 | -6.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 40% | 25% | 23% | -1.8 | -1.4 | -4.7 | +7.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 38% | 22% | 28% | +6.8 | -11.0 | +1.0 | +3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 26% | 24% | 32% | +53.7 | -10.2 | -28.4 | -15.2 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 74% | 9% | 3% | 14% | +15.4 | +8.3 | -13.8 | -10.0 |