Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series

4/4 Game 1

Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +53.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Sayaka Okada● Sho Shiratori● Akina Mizuhara● Kenji Katsumata0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Sayaka● Sho● Akina● Kenji
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSayaka Okada
1st-place chance
Sho Shiratori
1st-place chance
Akina Mizuhara
1st-place chance
Kenji Katsumata
1st-place chance
Sayaka Okada
Expected pt change
Sho Shiratori
Expected pt change
Akina Mizuhara
Expected pt change
Kenji Katsumata
Expected pt change
East 1Sayaka Okada ron 4,800 from Sho Shiratori24%26%24%25%+14.4-13.4-0.4-0.5
East 1, 1 honbaSayaka Okada tsumo 4,80035%16%24%25%+10.6-0.5-4.1-5.9
East 1, 2 honbaExhaustive draw43%17%20%20%-1.2-4.4+5.70.0
East 2, 3 honbaAkina Mizuhara tsumo 8,00042%14%24%21%-8.5-14.5+27.1-4.1
East 3Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,00031%7%45%16%-1.6+21.4-11.1-8.7
East 4Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,80032%16%37%15%-10.0-8.7-8.6+27.3
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw26%13%30%31%-2.2+5.7+1.8-5.3
South 1, 2 honbaSho Shiratori tsumo 8,00026%16%32%26%-18.5+32.7-8.1-6.1
South 2Exhaustive draw12%40%25%23%-1.8-1.4-4.7+7.9
South 3, 1 honbaExhaustive draw12%38%22%28%+6.8-11.0+1.0+3.1
South 3, 2 honbaSayaka Okada tsumo 8,00018%26%24%32%+53.7-10.2-28.4-15.2
South 4Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara74%9%3%14%+15.4+8.3-13.8-10.0

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)