Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/4 Game 2
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 3: Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +70.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | -1.5 | +4.3 | -0.6 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 23% | 28% | 25% | 25% | -6.5 | +11.1 | -3.0 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 19% | 37% | 21% | 23% | -0.5 | -8.6 | +7.4 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 29% | 27% | 25% | +36.2 | -7.1 | -20.4 | -8.8 |
| East 4 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 22% | 14% | 18% | -17.3 | -10.4 | -8.9 | +36.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 28% | 15% | 10% | 46% | -12.9 | -1.4 | +9.7 | +4.6 |
| South 1 | Koshin Asakura ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 18% | 15% | 13% | 54% | -0.1 | +0.4 | -20.8 | +20.5 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Koshin Asakura | 10% | 10% | 3% | 77% | +0.3 | -4.0 | +16.6 | -13.0 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 9% | 11% | 66% | -20.3 | -19.6 | +70.2 | -30.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 3% | 1% | 77% | 19% | +1.1 | -11.0 | +1.0 | +9.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 81% | 18% | +0.4 | -1.6 | -3.8 | +5.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 74% | 25% | +35.5 | -5.6 | +7.6 | -37.5 |