Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/5 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+80.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +28.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Makoto Sawazaki | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +24.7 | -22.5 | +0.1 | -2.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 13% | 21% | 22% | +1.3 | +2.6 | -8.2 | +4.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 44% | 14% | 16% | 25% | -5.3 | -18.4 | +1.2 | +22.5 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,900 from Arisa Date | 35% | 7% | 17% | 41% | +3.9 | +6.4 | -1.4 | -8.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 42% | 9% | 16% | 34% | -1.0 | +9.3 | -9.8 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 40% | 12% | 12% | 36% | -7.6 | -3.1 | -0.4 | +11.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 33% | 8% | 12% | 47% | +5.2 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 9% | 10% | 45% | -14.5 | -7.0 | -6.7 | +28.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 4% | 4% | 76% | -1.2 | -3.6 | +2.9 | +1.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,500 | 16% | 3% | 4% | 77% | -3.3 | -1.4 | -0.5 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 2% | 3% | 83% | -1.6 | -2.8 | +5.4 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 10% | 2% | 4% | 84% | -3.8 | -8.9 | +9.7 | +2.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 4% | 1% | 4% | 91% | +11.3 | -11.3 | 0.0 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 0% | 4% | 91% | +4.9 | -0.8 | -6.1 | +1.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 4% | 0% | 0% | 96% | -25.1 | -0.1 | +9.7 | +15.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +16.9 | -1.3 | -11.7 | -3.9 |