Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
4/5 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+80.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +27.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Sawazaki Makoto | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +21.0 | -19.6 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 41% | 14% | 22% | 23% | +2.2 | +2.8 | -7.4 | +2.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 42% | 15% | 18% | 24% | -2.0 | -21.1 | +2.6 | +20.5 |
| East 2 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,900 from Date Arisa | 37% | 7% | 19% | 37% | -0.5 | +9.3 | -3.3 | -5.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 39% | 10% | 17% | 34% | +1.9 | +8.4 | -11.5 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 41% | 12% | 12% | 35% | -7.2 | -5.1 | +0.9 | +11.3 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 34% | 8% | 12% | 46% | +5.2 | -2.6 | -2.8 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 7% | 8% | 46% | -15.2 | -4.2 | -8.1 | +27.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 4% | 4% | 76% | -2.6 | -3.5 | +4.3 | +1.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 1,500 | 14% | 4% | 5% | 78% | -1.2 | -1.6 | -2.7 | +5.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 11% | 2% | 3% | 83% | -1.6 | -2.8 | +5.8 | -1.4 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,600 from Sawazaki Makoto | 11% | 2% | 4% | 84% | -5.2 | -9.2 | +11.5 | +2.9 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 3% | 1% | 5% | 90% | +12.2 | -11.0 | -1.7 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 6% | 0% | 4% | 91% | +4.5 | -0.8 | -6.1 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | -24.4 | +0.4 | +9.4 | +14.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +16.5 | -1.8 | -11.3 | -3.4 |