Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2021-22 Semifinals

4/5 Game 1

Date Arisa finished 1st (+80.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +27.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 2South 1End● Date Arisa● Kayamori Sayaka● Sawazaki Makoto● Katsumata Kenji0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Date● Kayamori● Sawazaki● Katsumata
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Sawazaki Makoto
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
Sawazaki Makoto
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
East 1Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Sawazaki Makoto26%25%24%25%+21.0-19.6-0.4-1.1
East 1, 1 honbaDraw41%14%22%23%+2.2+2.8-7.4+2.4
East 1, 2 honbaDate Arisa ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto42%15%18%24%-2.0-21.1+2.6+20.5
East 2Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,900 from Date Arisa37%7%19%37%-0.5+9.3-3.3-5.5
East 2, 1 honbaSawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji39%10%17%34%+1.9+8.4-11.5+1.3
East 2, 2 honbaDate Arisa ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka41%12%12%35%-7.2-5.1+0.9+11.3
East 3Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Sawazaki Makoto34%8%12%46%+5.2-2.6-2.8+0.2
East 4Date Arisa tsumo 12,00038%7%8%46%-15.2-4.2-8.1+27.5
East 4, 1 honbaDraw16%4%4%76%-2.6-3.5+4.3+1.8
East 4, 2 honbaDate Arisa tsumo 1,50014%4%5%78%-1.2-1.6-2.7+5.4
East 4, 3 honbaDraw11%2%3%83%-1.6-2.8+5.8-1.4
South 1, 4 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 2,600 from Sawazaki Makoto11%2%4%84%-5.2-9.2+11.5+2.9
South 2Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto3%1%5%90%+12.2-11.0-1.7+0.5
South 3Draw6%0%4%91%+4.5-0.8-6.1+2.4
South 4, 1 honbaDate Arisa ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka3%0%0%97%-24.4+0.4+9.4+14.6
South 4, 2 honbaKayamori Sayaka tsumo 5,2000%0%0%100%+16.5-1.8-11.3-3.4

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)