Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/5 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -3.1 | -2.2 | +7.7 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 23% | 30% | 26% | -4.6 | +7.8 | -5.4 | +2.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 29% | 25% | 26% | +9.2 | -5.5 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -9.2 | -9.9 | -14.1 | +33.2 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 17% | 15% | 14% | 54% | +23.8 | -19.8 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 7% | 11% | 52% | +5.8 | -3.0 | +0.8 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 6% | 12% | 46% | +6.1 | -0.6 | -1.8 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 43% | 6% | 11% | 41% | -14.1 | -8.4 | +26.9 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 4% | 27% | 38% | -9.5 | +1.6 | +3.2 | +4.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 5% | 29% | 44% | -3.7 | +3.9 | +5.3 | -5.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Shingo Hori | 21% | 6% | 35% | 38% | -12.2 | -7.7 | -2.7 | +22.6 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 1% | 24% | 67% | -12.8 | +23.0 | -16.8 | +6.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 4% | 7% | 85% | +6.6 | -17.0 | +5.9 | +4.5 |