Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
4/5 Game 2
Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -6.2 | -1.7 | +6.1 | +1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 24% | 28% | 27% | -2.6 | +5.9 | -4.2 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 21% | 27% | 26% | 26% | +7.0 | -5.4 | +0.6 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | -10.1 | -6.8 | -16.3 | +33.2 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 17% | 17% | 14% | 52% | +25.0 | -20.7 | -2.2 | -2.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 32% | 7% | 12% | 50% | +5.4 | -2.6 | +0.2 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 37% | 7% | 11% | 44% | +6.6 | -2.6 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 43% | 5% | 12% | 40% | -14.7 | -7.6 | +26.7 | -4.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 29% | 4% | 29% | 38% | -10.6 | +1.7 | +3.7 | +5.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 5% | 31% | 44% | -0.9 | +2.5 | +3.7 | -5.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 2,600 from Hori Shingo | 21% | 5% | 35% | 38% | -12.3 | -7.4 | -2.5 | +22.2 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 1% | 24% | 67% | -12.9 | +23.1 | -15.5 | +5.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 5% | 4% | 8% | 83% | +5.9 | -16.3 | +4.9 | +5.5 |