Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series

4/7 Game 1

Shingo Hori finished 1st (+79.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Shingo Hori tsumo 16,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +45.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hands	Result	Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance	Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance	Shingo Hori 1st-place chance	Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance	Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change	Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change	Shingo Hori Expected pt change	Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change
East 1	Shingo Hori tsumo 16,000	26%	26%	24%	24%	-23.6	-12.1	+45.8	-10.0
East 2	Yuumi Uotani tsumo 3,000	10%	14%	62%	14%	-5.2	+8.1	-2.5	-0.4
East 2, 1 honba	Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi	7%	18%	60%	15%	-23.6	+31.5	-6.5	-1.4
East 2, 2 honba	Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Yuumi Uotani	2%	39%	47%	12%	-1.3	-23.0	+4.9	+19.5
East 3	Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000	2%	20%	55%	23%	-6.3	-13.3	+33.2	-13.6
East 3, 1 honba	Shingo Hori ron 7,700 from Yuumi Uotani	1%	5%	86%	8%	+1.0	-12.9	+12.3	-0.4
East 3, 2 honba	Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 4,000	0%	1%	95%	4%	+9.7	-5.6	-4.3	+0.1
East 4	Exhaustive draw	1%	2%	94%	4%	-3.4	+3.9	-1.4	+0.9
East 4, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	1%	2%	93%	5%	-0.8	-1.6	-1.8	+4.1
East 4, 2 honba	Yuumi Uotani ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi	1%	2%	91%	7%	-2.6	+8.6	+1.8	-7.8
South 1	Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Yuumi Uotani	0%	2%	95%	3%	+0.9	-20.1	+14.1	+5.1
South 2	Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori	0%	0%	99%	1%	+23.1	-10.8	-11.8	-0.5
South 3	Yuumi Uotani tsumo 8,000	0%	0%	99%	1%	-13.1	+19.7	-5.5	-1.1
South 4	Shingo Hori ron 1,600 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi	0%	0%	98%	2%	-8.1	+1.3	+3.0	+3.8