Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/8 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+53.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 5 honba: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +60.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 27% | 25% | 25% | -14.8 | -5.4 | +24.0 | -3.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 22% | 43% | 22% | +8.4 | -6.9 | +0.6 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 17% | 44% | 21% | -2.1 | -1.4 | -6.0 | +9.6 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 17% | 17% | 39% | 27% | -4.4 | +12.3 | -0.4 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000 | 15% | 24% | 40% | 21% | +20.0 | -6.6 | -6.8 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 28% | 20% | 34% | 18% | +10.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 | -7.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 19% | 31% | 14% | -3.5 | -5.0 | -1.6 | +10.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 34% | 16% | 30% | 20% | -2.6 | +12.4 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 24% | 27% | 17% | -5.9 | -5.7 | +8.9 | +2.7 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 28% | 19% | 32% | 20% | -1.6 | -3.6 | -55.8 | +60.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 5% | 1% | 85% | -3.6 | -2.2 | +4.4 | +1.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 87% | -15.5 | +21.1 | -6.5 | +1.0 |