Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
4/8 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+53.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 5 honba: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +60.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -14.6 | -4.3 | +23.7 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 14% | 22% | 41% | 23% | +5.8 | -4.9 | +1.0 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 17% | 44% | 21% | -0.6 | -3.1 | -6.0 | +9.7 |
| East 4 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 16% | 38% | 28% | -7.4 | +12.9 | +0.2 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 24% | 39% | 23% | +21.4 | -6.4 | -7.0 | -8.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 27% | 21% | 33% | 19% | +11.3 | -4.2 | -1.1 | -6.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 37% | 17% | 31% | 14% | -3.0 | -5.4 | -1.2 | +9.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 3,000 | 35% | 15% | 30% | 20% | -5.0 | +15.0 | -4.1 | -5.9 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Draw | 30% | 24% | 29% | 17% | -4.0 | -6.7 | +8.2 | +2.5 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 27% | 19% | 33% | 20% | -2.8 | -2.7 | -55.3 | +60.8 |
| South 4 | Draw | 9% | 5% | 1% | 85% | -2.1 | -3.5 | +4.0 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 87% | -15.8 | +22.0 | -6.8 | +0.7 |