Game · 2021-22 Semifinal Series
4/8 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+83.7pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +35.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +3.2 | -4.3 | -0.9 | +2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 24% | 22% | 27% | +35.8 | -11.4 | -11.3 | -13.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 56% | 15% | 14% | 15% | +32.9 | -12.1 | -9.9 | -10.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 85% | 4% | 6% | 5% | +18.9 | +2.7 | +1.4 | -23.1 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 95% | 2% | 2% | 1% | +1.1 | -1.8 | -1.9 | +2.7 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,200 from Go Kobayashi | 95% | 2% | 2% | 1% | -0.1 | +9.5 | -0.9 | -8.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 96% | 2% | 1% | 1% | +2.7 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 98% | 1% | 1% | 0% | +7.4 | +3.3 | -11.4 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -5.0 | -8.9 | -12.7 | +26.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -1.1 | -3.4 | -1.1 | +5.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 98% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.5 | -0.6 | +5.9 | -3.8 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -6.0 | +18.0 | -5.8 | -6.2 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 9,600 from Go Kobayashi | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -0.5 | +17.8 | +3.7 | -20.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 4,000 | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% | +0.5 | -5.4 | -5.9 | +10.8 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.9 | -1.6 | -11.0 | +14.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.1 | +1.5 | -1.5 | +1.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -0.8 | +5.7 | -0.3 | -4.6 |