Game · 2021-22 Semifinals
4/8 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+83.7pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 18,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +36.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +1.1 | -3.8 | +0.8 | +1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 27% | +34.8 | -9.9 | -13.5 | -11.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 18,000 | 54% | 15% | 15% | 16% | +36.0 | -12.6 | -11.5 | -11.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Kobayashi Go | 85% | 5% | 5% | 5% | +17.6 | +3.5 | +1.6 | -22.7 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Draw | 95% | 2% | 1% | 1% | +0.3 | -0.7 | -1.2 | +1.5 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,200 from Kobayashi Go | 94% | 3% | 2% | 1% | -0.9 | +8.5 | -0.9 | -6.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 96% | 2% | 2% | 0% | +4.8 | -2.5 | -0.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu | 98% | 1% | 1% | 0% | +6.2 | +4.9 | -11.7 | +0.5 |
| East 4 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 12,000 | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -5.0 | -10.4 | -12.5 | +28.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -1.4 | -1.6 | -0.2 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -0.9 | -2.5 | +7.0 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -6.3 | +19.0 | -7.2 | -5.5 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 9,600 from Kobayashi Go | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -1.0 | +17.6 | +4.6 | -21.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go tsumo 4,000 | 97% | 3% | 1% | 0% | +1.0 | -5.9 | -6.3 | +11.3 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 8,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.9 | -1.4 | -11.7 | +15.0 |
| South 4 | Draw | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.2 | +2.1 | -1.1 | +0.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -0.5 | +5.3 | -0.6 | -4.2 |