Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/8 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in South 1: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +42.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -1.5 | +2.9 | +2.2 | -3.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 23% | 27% | 26% | 25% | +30.2 | -6.5 | +0.4 | -24.1 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 46% | 19% | 25% | 10% | +12.8 | +2.6 | -13.0 | -2.4 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 59% | 19% | 13% | 9% | +2.3 | -0.3 | +4.3 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 18% | 14% | 5% | -26.2 | +42.7 | -10.6 | -5.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 62% | 9% | 4% | -0.5 | +0.5 | +4.6 | -4.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 66% | 8% | 2% | +7.7 | +1.9 | -7.7 | -1.9 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700 | 26% | 71% | 1% | 2% | -9.3 | +12.3 | +3.8 | -6.9 |