Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/8 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in South 1: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +43.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -3.9 | +3.9 | +4.1 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 23% | 28% | 26% | 23% | +29.5 | -4.0 | -2.5 | -23.0 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 45% | 22% | 23% | 10% | +11.9 | +0.8 | -11.6 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko | 58% | 20% | 13% | 9% | +3.2 | -1.4 | +6.2 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 16% | 16% | 5% | -24.2 | +43.7 | -13.4 | -6.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 26% | 62% | 8% | 4% | -3.5 | +1.4 | +6.8 | -4.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,700 | 21% | 69% | 8% | 2% | +9.2 | +1.0 | -7.8 | -2.4 |
| South 4 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 2,700 | 26% | 70% | 1% | 2% | -9.7 | +12.1 | +3.6 | -6.0 |