Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/9 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+65.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +44.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 4,800 from Takaya Matsugase | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +12.4 | -1.0 | -10.3 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 34% | 23% | 18% | 25% | +44.6 | -16.0 | -14.7 | -13.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 74% | 9% | 7% | 10% | -1.7 | +21.3 | -16.7 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 72% | 17% | 3% | 8% | +0.9 | -8.0 | -2.6 | +9.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 74% | 11% | 3% | 12% | -2.8 | -0.2 | +5.7 | -2.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 12% | 4% | 12% | +3.1 | -4.0 | +2.4 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 75% | 9% | 5% | 10% | -8.0 | -8.7 | +31.0 | -14.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 68% | 9% | 14% | 8% | +26.8 | -5.3 | -16.7 | -4.8 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 93% | 2% | 2% | 2% | -4.7 | +21.6 | -5.7 | -11.2 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 90% | 7% | 2% | 1% | -15.1 | +19.1 | -2.3 | -1.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 19% | 2% | 1% | +2.3 | -4.5 | +7.2 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 83% | 13% | 3% | 1% | -5.2 | +1.1 | +3.0 | +1.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 78% | 16% | 5% | 1% | +10.4 | -2.3 | -4.3 | -3.8 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 94% | 5% | 0% | 1% | +2.5 | -0.4 | +6.4 | -8.5 |