Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/9 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+65.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +42.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 4,800 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +12.8 | -0.9 | -11.7 | -0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 35% | 24% | 17% | 25% | +42.6 | -16.1 | -10.2 | -16.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 72% | 10% | 8% | 9% | -1.1 | +20.6 | -19.7 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 69% | 18% | 4% | 9% | +0.5 | -7.4 | -2.3 | +9.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 72% | 12% | 3% | 13% | -1.6 | -0.1 | +5.3 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 71% | 14% | 4% | 11% | +4.3 | -3.2 | +1.4 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 76% | 10% | 4% | 10% | -10.4 | -9.8 | +31.8 | -11.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 66% | 11% | 15% | 9% | +27.5 | -5.4 | -16.6 | -5.4 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 92% | 3% | 2% | 3% | -3.0 | +19.3 | -5.0 | -11.3 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 92% | 6% | 2% | 1% | -15.7 | +20.3 | -1.0 | -3.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 77% | 19% | 3% | 1% | +2.6 | -5.6 | +6.1 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 86% | 10% | 3% | 1% | -6.8 | +2.5 | +2.7 | +1.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 75% | 18% | 6% | 2% | +11.2 | -2.0 | -4.3 | -4.8 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 94% | 6% | 0% | 1% | +2.8 | -0.5 | +6.3 | -8.6 |