Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/11 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sho Shiratori tsumo 7,800, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +23.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 25% | +2.4 | +3.7 | -1.6 | -4.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 28% | 27% | 23% | 22% | -8.5 | +2.7 | -1.6 | +7.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 30% | 22% | 28% | -5.6 | +2.8 | +3.2 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 4,800 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 30% | 24% | 27% | -0.5 | +13.2 | -13.3 | +0.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 41% | 16% | 26% | +3.3 | -1.8 | +3.1 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 2,700 | 19% | 40% | 18% | 23% | -2.5 | +14.6 | -9.8 | -2.3 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 56% | 10% | 20% | +23.4 | -4.7 | -5.5 | -13.2 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 7,800 | 31% | 49% | 9% | 11% | +23.8 | -11.8 | -5.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 31% | 5% | 8% | -1.7 | -2.8 | +5.6 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 57% | 28% | 7% | 8% | +1.7 | -18.2 | +27.9 | -11.4 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 63% | 13% | 18% | 6% | -2.0 | +30.2 | -26.8 | -1.3 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% | +21.0 | -15.5 | +3.7 | -9.2 |