Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/11 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+52.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +51.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | +31.8 | -10.0 | -12.0 | -9.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 16% | 17% | 17% | -5.4 | -0.7 | +3.3 | +2.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 20% | -18.1 | +51.4 | -18.2 | -15.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 57% | 9% | 11% | +26.9 | -15.4 | -6.5 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 37% | 7% | 8% | -2.7 | -3.2 | +3.5 | +2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 48% | 34% | 9% | 9% | +1.3 | +0.3 | -5.3 | +3.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 36% | 5% | 10% | -3.1 | -1.9 | -2.7 | +7.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,100 | 46% | 34% | 5% | 15% | +1.4 | -0.1 | +4.8 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 34% | 6% | 10% | +8.3 | -2.8 | -3.6 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 58% | 29% | 4% | 8% | -23.0 | +2.7 | -0.9 | +21.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 37% | 7% | 21% | +1.4 | +0.1 | -3.5 | +2.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 36% | 5% | 23% | -10.4 | -11.0 | +38.0 | -16.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 29% | 23% | 18% | +1.8 | -5.6 | +6.2 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 31% | 25% | 27% | 17% | -15.4 | +24.6 | -0.5 | -8.6 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 16% | 54% | 19% | 11% | -10.1 | +25.2 | +2.2 | -17.4 |