Game · 2022-23 Finals

5/11 Game 2

Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+52.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +50.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance	Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance	Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance	Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance	Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change	Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change	Takamiya Mari Expected pt change	Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change
East 1	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000	25%	25%	26%	24%	+30.0	-10.8	-12.4	-6.9
East 1, 1 honba	Draw	48%	16%	17%	19%	-2.7	-1.5	+2.6	+1.6
East 2, 2 honba	Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000	44%	17%	19%	20%	-17.6	+50.2	-15.7	-17.0
East 2, 3 honba	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000	25%	55%	10%	10%	+26.1	-12.8	-8.2	-5.1
East 3	Draw	49%	37%	7%	7%	-4.0	-2.7	+3.5	+3.2
East 3, 1 honba	Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,000	46%	37%	8%	9%	+2.0	-0.3	-6.7	+5.0
East 4	Draw	48%	36%	5%	11%	-1.7	-1.9	-2.0	+5.5
East 4, 1 honba	Takamiya Mari tsumo 1,100	47%	34%	5%	14%	+0.8	-0.2	+5.1	-5.7
South 1	Draw	50%	34%	6%	10%	+8.4	-3.2	-3.4	-1.8
South 1, 1 honba	Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki	59%	29%	5%	7%	-23.6	+2.6	-0.6	+21.6
South 2	Draw	35%	37%	7%	21%	+0.9	+1.1	-3.3	+1.2
South 3, 1 honba	Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000	35%	38%	6%	22%	-9.6	-11.5	+36.3	-15.2
South 3, 2 honba	Draw	30%	30%	22%	19%	+1.1	-5.2	+7.7	-3.6
South 3, 3 honba	Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki	31%	26%	27%	16%	-15.4	+24.0	-1.4	-7.2
South 4	Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji	16%	53%	19%	12%	-9.6	+25.2	+2.7	-18.3

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)