Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/12 Game 2
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+73.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 24,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +62.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +1.7 | -0.9 | -5.4 | +4.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 18,000 from Nikaido Aki | 27% | 22% | 23% | 28% | +43.9 | -40.3 | -2.2 | -1.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 60% | 5% | 15% | 20% | -7.1 | +15.7 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 57% | 9% | 14% | 20% | +0.3 | -4.1 | +5.7 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 57% | 6% | 19% | 18% | -1.8 | +2.1 | -5.2 | +4.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 56% | 7% | 14% | 23% | -2.0 | -0.1 | -1.8 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 54% | 8% | 14% | 24% | +17.8 | -11.4 | -0.9 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 75% | 3% | 9% | 13% | -2.3 | -13.8 | +19.1 | -3.0 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 73% | 2% | 16% | 9% | +3.0 | -7.3 | +4.5 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 24,000 | 77% | 0% | 13% | 10% | -38.0 | -7.6 | +62.2 | -16.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 5% | 0% | 93% | 2% | +0.1 | -1.2 | -0.9 | +2.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 95% | 2% | -12.3 | -4.5 | -7.4 | +24.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 2% | 0% | 90% | 9% | -11.7 | -2.6 | +7.9 | +6.4 |