Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/12 Game 2
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+73.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 24,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +60.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | +4.3 | -3.9 | -4.0 | +3.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 18,000 from Aki Nikaido | 28% | 22% | 22% | 29% | +43.6 | -37.9 | -1.8 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 62% | 4% | 15% | 19% | -9.1 | +15.4 | -4.3 | -2.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 10% | 14% | 20% | -0.1 | -5.2 | +6.4 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 6% | 18% | 20% | +0.1 | +2.5 | -4.4 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 7% | 15% | 20% | -2.1 | -2.9 | -3.3 | +8.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 54% | 6% | 14% | 26% | +16.3 | -7.2 | -1.1 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 75% | 3% | 8% | 14% | -0.3 | -15.1 | +17.5 | -2.1 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 75% | 1% | 13% | 11% | +1.5 | -7.1 | +8.1 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 24,000 | 77% | 0% | 14% | 9% | -38.4 | -7.9 | +60.9 | -14.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 0% | 94% | 2% | +0.9 | -0.9 | -1.1 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 95% | 2% | -14.2 | -4.6 | -6.6 | +25.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 0% | 91% | 8% | -10.2 | -2.5 | +7.4 | +5.4 |