Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Finals

5/15 Game 1

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +36.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Setokuma Naoki● Nikaido Rumi● Hinata Aiko● Takamiya Mari0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Setokuma● Nikaido● Hinata● Takamiya
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNikaido Rumi
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Nikaido Rumi
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki24%27%25%24%-2.4+29.5+0.5-27.5
East 2Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Hinata Aiko20%49%22%10%+1.4-2.7-0.5+1.7
East 3Takamiya Mari ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi20%48%22%10%-42.4-5.9+48.1+0.3
East 3, 1 honbaHinata Aiko tsumo 1,1003%31%60%7%-0.5+5.1-4.60.0
East 4Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi3%35%56%6%-27.0-5.7-4.2+36.8
East 4, 1 honbaNikaido Rumi ron 2,600 from Hinata Aiko0%29%48%22%+2.9-5.2+3.7-1.4
South 1Draw1%25%55%20%+3.1-2.8-0.2-0.1
South 1, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko1%22%57%20%-2.6-15.4+0.3+17.6
South 2Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko0%11%55%34%+0.4-14.7-1.9+16.1
South 3Nikaido Rumi ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari0%2%47%51%+9.4+0.1-26.3+16.8
South 4Nikaido Rumi ron 5,200 from Takamiya Mari0%1%8%92%+5.0-1.1-6.0+2.1

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)