Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/15 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +36.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -2.4 | +29.5 | +0.5 | -27.5 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Hinata Aiko | 20% | 49% | 22% | 10% | +1.4 | -2.7 | -0.5 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 20% | 48% | 22% | 10% | -42.4 | -5.9 | +48.1 | +0.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 31% | 60% | 7% | -0.5 | +5.1 | -4.6 | 0.0 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 3% | 35% | 56% | 6% | -27.0 | -5.7 | -4.2 | +36.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 2,600 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 29% | 48% | 22% | +2.9 | -5.2 | +3.7 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 1% | 25% | 55% | 20% | +3.1 | -2.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko | 1% | 22% | 57% | 20% | -2.6 | -15.4 | +0.3 | +17.6 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 11% | 55% | 34% | +0.4 | -14.7 | -1.9 | +16.1 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Rumi ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 2% | 47% | 51% | +9.4 | +0.1 | -26.3 | +16.8 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Rumi ron 5,200 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 1% | 8% | 92% | +5.0 | -1.1 | -6.0 | +2.1 |