Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/15 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Rumi Nikaido, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +37.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -1.8 | +30.6 | 0.0 | -28.8 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Aiko Hinata | 22% | 46% | 22% | 10% | -1.4 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +2.0 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 20% | 48% | 22% | 11% | -40.6 | -6.2 | +45.8 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 31% | 58% | 7% | -2.3 | +4.9 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 2% | 35% | 56% | 6% | -25.8 | -7.1 | -4.7 | +37.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,600 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 28% | 49% | 22% | +3.0 | -3.9 | +3.6 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 25% | 55% | 20% | +2.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Aiko Hinata | 1% | 25% | 55% | 19% | -2.0 | -17.0 | +0.6 | +18.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 11% | 56% | 33% | +0.2 | -14.6 | -2.7 | +17.1 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | +9.8 | +0.3 | -25.9 | +15.7 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 5,200 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 1% | 8% | 91% | +4.6 | -1.1 | -5.9 | +2.4 |