Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/16 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+106.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +32.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -13.9 | -5.6 | -2.0 | +21.5 |
| East 2 | Draw | 15% | 20% | 22% | 43% | -0.5 | +7.4 | -4.5 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 15% | 25% | 19% | 41% | +0.6 | -3.2 | +25.6 | -23.1 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 7,800 | 16% | 23% | 38% | 23% | -8.2 | -6.7 | +21.9 | -7.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 11% | 15% | 58% | 16% | +3.6 | -37.7 | +32.8 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 5% | 2% | 87% | 7% | +1.2 | +8.2 | +0.3 | -9.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 3% | 2% | 91% | 4% | -3.4 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +6.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki | 3% | 1% | 89% | 6% | -9.1 | +9.2 | +2.6 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki | 2% | 2% | 94% | 3% | -7.1 | -1.5 | +4.2 | +4.4 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | -5.5 | -8.1 | -1.5 | +15.1 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 7,700 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -15.6 | +6.0 | +9.8 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -5.7 | -7.7 | +19.5 | -6.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +8.8 | -1.6 | -0.8 | -6.5 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -7.5 | +5.4 | +1.7 | +0.3 |