Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/18 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +29.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 22% | 27% | +29.2 | -10.8 | -7.3 | -11.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 17% | 18% | 18% | -10.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | +25.5 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Honda | 38% | 14% | 14% | 35% | +8.5 | -2.8 | -1.2 | -4.5 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 46% | 11% | 13% | 31% | +0.6 | -0.8 | +32.3 | -32.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 47% | 10% | 31% | 13% | +0.3 | +15.2 | -2.5 | -12.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 17% | 28% | 8% | -0.1 | +5.1 | -0.7 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,400 from Kenji Katsumata | 47% | 19% | 27% | 6% | +9.1 | -5.9 | -0.9 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 57% | 15% | 24% | 4% | +3.5 | -10.9 | +1.5 | +5.9 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 2,700 | 64% | 8% | 23% | 5% | +12.3 | -5.6 | -3.7 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 84% | 2% | 12% | 3% | -2.8 | -8.6 | +9.4 | +2.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 77% | 1% | 19% | 3% | +8.5 | +0.3 | -7.8 | -1.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,500 from Kenji Katsumata | 93% | 0% | 5% | 3% | -0.4 | -14.7 | -0.5 | +15.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 0% | 4% | 4% | -6.3 | +1.5 | +4.3 | +0.5 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 84% | 0% | 11% | 6% | +4.2 | +29.2 | -4.9 | -28.5 |