Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Finals

5/18 Game 1

Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +30.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Shiratori Sho● Katsumata Kenji● Date Arisa● Honda Tomohiro0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shiratori● Katsumata● Date● Honda
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultShiratori Sho
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Shiratori Sho
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
East 1Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,00025%25%24%26%+30.3-11.7-10.1-8.5
East 1, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00049%16%17%18%-12.3-6.1-6.5+24.9
East 2Shiratori Sho ron 2,600 from Honda Tomohiro37%14%14%36%+9.5-3.1-0.5-5.8
East 3Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro47%10%14%30%+0.4+0.2+31.0-31.6
East 3, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Honda Tomohiro45%11%31%13%+2.4+13.9-2.9-13.4
East 4Draw49%17%27%8%-0.5+6.4+0.4-6.3
South 1, 1 honbaShiratori Sho ron 2,400 from Katsumata Kenji49%20%27%5%+8.6-7.1-1.50.0
South 1, 2 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji57%15%24%4%+3.3-11.2+0.6+7.3
South 2Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,70065%8%21%6%+9.8-5.9-0.2-3.7
South 3Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji79%1%16%3%-1.1-6.7+5.5+2.3
South 3, 1 honbaDraw77%1%18%4%+9.2-0.8-6.4-2.0
South 4, 2 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 1,500 from Katsumata Kenji93%0%4%2%-0.6-14.5-0.4+15.5
South 4, 3 honbaDraw93%0%4%3%-6.2+2.4+3.80.0
South 4, 4 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 8,00085%0%10%5%+3.9+28.2-4.6-27.5

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)