Game · 2022-23 Finals
5/18 Game 2
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | +29.2 | -10.3 | -7.9 | -11.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 49% | 17% | 18% | 17% | -10.5 | -6.6 | +21.0 | -4.0 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 14% | 31% | 16% | -8.5 | -15.2 | +30.1 | -6.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 26% | 6% | 58% | 10% | +3.9 | -2.2 | -2.9 | +1.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 28% | 5% | 57% | 10% | -3.2 | -3.0 | +1.6 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 5% | 58% | 11% | -4.6 | +24.6 | -3.4 | -16.7 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Takamiya Mari | 23% | 13% | 58% | 6% | -3.9 | -17.7 | +20.0 | +1.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 10% | 4% | 83% | 4% | -7.2 | +3.3 | +1.6 | +2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 5% | 86% | 4% | -20.0 | +50.9 | -16.5 | -14.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 33% | 61% | 3% | -3.7 | -15.5 | +22.3 | -3.1 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 6% | 92% | 1% | -3.8 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +2.5 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | +3.1 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 2% | 96% | 2% | +2.2 | -2.3 | -2.0 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 4% | 94% | 2% | -20.4 | -14.7 | -6.8 | +42.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 1% | 89% | 9% | -9.8 | -4.9 | -3.4 | +18.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Draw | 0% | 1% | 81% | 18% | +1.6 | -2.9 | +8.5 | -7.2 |