Game · 2022-23 Final Series
5/18 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 27% | 24% | 25% | +30.2 | -11.3 | -8.0 | -10.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 17% | 18% | 17% | -10.9 | -6.6 | +21.0 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 15% | 32% | 16% | -9.5 | -15.7 | +31.8 | -6.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 6% | 60% | 10% | +6.8 | -3.2 | -4.5 | +0.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 5% | 55% | 10% | -4.4 | -2.4 | +0.7 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 5% | 56% | 14% | -5.9 | +23.1 | +0.4 | -17.6 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Mari Takamiya | 22% | 11% | 61% | 6% | -2.2 | -16.2 | +17.1 | +1.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 4% | 82% | 4% | -7.4 | +2.0 | +3.2 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 3% | 86% | 4% | -21.5 | +54.3 | -18.0 | -14.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 35% | 60% | 3% | -2.6 | -17.4 | +23.1 | -3.2 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 5% | 93% | 1% | -3.1 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | +2.5 | -1.5 | -1.3 | +0.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | +2.5 | -2.0 | -2.2 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 4% | 94% | 2% | -21.1 | -15.4 | -7.4 | +43.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 1% | 89% | 10% | -9.6 | -5.3 | -2.7 | +17.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 82% | 17% | +1.6 | -2.2 | +8.0 | -7.4 |