Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Finals

5/18 Game 2

Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +30.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 4End● Nikaido Aki● Setokuma Naoki● Takamiya Mari● Ooi Takaharu0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Nikaido● Setokuma● Takamiya● Ooi
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSetokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
East 1Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,00027%25%24%24%+29.2-10.3-7.9-11.1
East 1, 1 honbaNikaido Aki tsumo 8,00049%17%18%17%-10.5-6.6+21.0-4.0
East 2Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,00039%14%31%16%-8.5-15.2+30.1-6.4
East 3Draw26%6%58%10%+3.9-2.2-2.9+1.2
East 4, 1 honbaDraw28%5%57%10%-3.2-3.0+1.6+4.6
East 4, 2 honbaTakamiya Mari tsumo 8,00026%5%58%11%-4.6+24.6-3.4-16.7
South 1Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Takamiya Mari23%13%58%6%-3.9-17.7+20.0+1.6
South 2Draw10%4%83%4%-7.2+3.3+1.6+2.3
South 2, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari tsumo 18,0006%5%86%4%-20.0+50.9-16.5-14.4
South 2, 2 honbaNikaido Aki tsumo 8,0003%33%61%3%-3.7-15.5+22.3-3.1
South 3Ooi Takaharu ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki0%6%92%1%-3.8+0.4+0.9+2.5
South 4Draw0%2%97%1%+3.1-1.8-1.3-0.1
South 4, 1 honbaDraw0%2%96%2%+2.2-2.3-2.0+2.2
South 4, 2 honbaOoi Takaharu tsumo 12,0000%4%94%2%-20.4-14.7-6.8+42.0
South 4, 3 honbaOoi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki0%1%89%9%-9.8-4.9-3.4+18.2
South 4, 4 honbaDraw0%1%81%18%+1.6-2.9+8.5-7.2

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)