Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/2 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 16,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +49.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -3.8 | +8.7 | -2.1 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 31% | 22% | 25% | -1.9 | +3.5 | +0.7 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 20% | 33% | 24% | 23% | 0.0 | +16.1 | -14.6 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 16,000 | 20% | 45% | 14% | 20% | -14.6 | -26.6 | -8.6 | +49.8 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 9% | 18% | 9% | 64% | +0.6 | -11.0 | -3.1 | +13.5 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 7% | 9% | 5% | 79% | +3.9 | +2.0 | -23.0 | +17.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 4% | 1% | 92% | +0.1 | -4.4 | +4.7 | -0.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 4% | 1% | 91% | -1.6 | +0.8 | -2.6 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 93% | -9.4 | -7.5 | +23.5 | -6.5 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 2% | 3% | 3% | 92% | -8.1 | -3.4 | +27.6 | -16.1 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 6% | 11% | 82% | -2.8 | -15.6 | +22.7 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 75% | -3.0 | +0.2 | -12.8 | +15.6 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 0% | 3% | 98% | -9.1 | +14.0 | -3.9 | -1.0 |