Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/3 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -18.8 | +2.1 | +2.3 | +14.4 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 24% | 25% | 37% | +23.5 | -13.5 | -5.9 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 1,500 | 28% | 17% | 21% | 34% | -0.4 | -4.6 | +5.0 | -0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 13% | 24% | 34% | -8.6 | +37.0 | -17.2 | -11.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 40% | 14% | 24% | -3.5 | +1.2 | +7.5 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 43% | 17% | 20% | -5.4 | -1.7 | -4.3 | +11.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 15% | 39% | 17% | 29% | -8.0 | +25.8 | -9.0 | -8.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 69% | 8% | 17% | +31.6 | -12.5 | -9.7 | -9.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 54% | 6% | 13% | +3.1 | -5.1 | +4.5 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 47% | 9% | 13% | +3.8 | +7.9 | -9.0 | -2.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 31% | 55% | 2% | 11% | +38.1 | -24.3 | -8.0 | -5.8 |