Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/3 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +37.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,200 from Date Arisa | 26% | 27% | 23% | 24% | -14.9 | -2.1 | +1.4 | +15.5 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 25% | 24% | 35% | +21.7 | -14.6 | -1.7 | -5.3 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 1,500 | 29% | 16% | 24% | 31% | -2.9 | -2.5 | +4.4 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 14% | 27% | 33% | -4.9 | +36.4 | -21.8 | -9.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 24% | 39% | 12% | 24% | -3.8 | +0.6 | +6.8 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 41% | 16% | 22% | -6.5 | -1.4 | -1.3 | +9.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,000 | 15% | 39% | 16% | 30% | -7.0 | +26.5 | -8.3 | -11.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 71% | 8% | 14% | +29.0 | -12.7 | -9.3 | -6.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 26% | 55% | 7% | 12% | +7.4 | -5.8 | +3.0 | -4.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 36% | 45% | 8% | 11% | +1.3 | +7.8 | -7.8 | -1.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko | 31% | 56% | 3% | 10% | +37.4 | -23.8 | -8.4 | -5.2 |