Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/5 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in South 3: Tomohiro Honda ron 18,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +54.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -0.6 | +16.0 | -15.4 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 24% | 36% | 16% | 25% | +1.2 | +28.2 | -0.2 | -29.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 19% | 61% | 12% | 8% | -5.6 | +0.8 | -0.4 | +5.2 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 14% | 64% | 11% | 10% | +0.6 | +9.8 | -8.9 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 76% | 5% | 6% | -7.2 | -5.5 | +30.3 | -17.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 70% | 17% | 3% | -7.9 | +5.0 | +4.5 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,900 | 3% | 77% | 17% | 3% | -2.1 | +8.2 | -4.8 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 2% | 87% | 10% | 1% | +2.7 | +10.5 | -1.2 | -12.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 93% | 5% | 1% | -4.6 | -5.7 | +12.2 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 18,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 90% | 9% | 0% | -0.6 | -53.6 | +54.5 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 5% | 94% | 0% | -4.3 | -1.4 | -4.9 | +10.5 |
| South 4 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 4% | 95% | 1% | -17.2 | -6.0 | -5.7 | +28.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 4% | 92% | 4% | -1.5 | +0.9 | +4.0 | -3.4 |