Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/5 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+60.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 6,400 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -9.3 | -5.4 | -3.9 | +18.6 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 22% | 22% | 38% | -15.4 | +44.1 | -11.0 | -17.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 10% | 58% | 13% | 20% | -25.4 | -4.3 | +29.9 | -0.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 51% | 27% | 19% | -2.9 | -4.2 | +3.5 | +3.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 2% | 46% | 31% | 21% | -4.0 | -8.0 | +19.7 | -7.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 2% | 34% | 49% | 15% | +0.7 | -0.7 | +5.8 | -5.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 2% | 31% | 55% | 12% | -0.5 | +26.2 | -25.7 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 2% | 64% | 24% | 10% | +4.0 | -5.1 | +3.5 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 2% | 59% | 30% | 9% | -7.5 | -1.2 | -5.5 | +14.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 60% | 24% | 15% | -0.3 | +2.5 | +0.4 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 67% | 20% | 13% | -12.4 | -17.1 | +34.6 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 28% | 65% | 7% | -0.3 | -2.5 | +8.8 | -6.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 20% | 76% | 4% | +0.5 | +4.6 | -13.7 | +8.6 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 30% | 61% | 9% | +8.0 | +30.3 | -30.8 | -7.5 |