Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/9 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+62.8pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +34.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -3.1 | +1.0 | -10.9 | +13.0 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,500 | 21% | 25% | 19% | 34% | -0.1 | +4.1 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 27% | 18% | 33% | +25.8 | -24.0 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 42% | 12% | 16% | 30% | +16.3 | -6.1 | -5.7 | -4.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 8% | 10% | 23% | -2.4 | -3.1 | +4.2 | +1.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 7% | 11% | 25% | -16.6 | -8.0 | -10.1 | +34.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 5% | 7% | 57% | -12.4 | -5.8 | -7.9 | +26.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 12% | 1% | 2% | 85% | +1.1 | +18.3 | -2.6 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 19% | 6% | 3% | 72% | -11.4 | +1.2 | -2.4 | +12.6 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 4% | 4% | 2% | 90% | +26.2 | -28.9 | +6.7 | -4.0 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 20% | 0% | 2% | 79% | -14.6 | +16.4 | -9.7 | +8.0 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | -2.1 | +17.0 | -10.6 | -4.3 |