Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/9 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +49.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -13.9 | -6.3 | +24.5 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 15% | 21% | 42% | 21% | +21.8 | 0.0 | -22.8 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 31% | 21% | 26% | 23% | -1.0 | +4.5 | -2.3 | -1.3 |
| East 4 | Draw | 31% | 23% | 23% | 23% | -1.9 | -3.2 | +9.9 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 29% | 21% | 31% | 18% | +6.7 | -3.9 | -4.0 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000 | 34% | 19% | 27% | 20% | +49.9 | -14.7 | -18.7 | -16.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 16,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 86% | 4% | 6% | 4% | -49.1 | -4.7 | -2.6 | +56.4 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 30% | 7% | 11% | 52% | +13.3 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -2.1 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 43% | 2% | 10% | 45% | +19.4 | +1.7 | -14.8 | -6.3 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 75% | 0% | 0% | 24% | +10.2 | -11.3 | +11.0 | -9.9 |