Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/9 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +48.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -15.2 | -3.6 | +25.0 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 21% | 43% | 21% | +23.4 | -4.3 | -20.7 | +1.6 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 31% | 19% | 27% | 23% | -0.9 | +7.0 | -3.6 | -2.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 23% | 24% | 22% | -3.2 | +0.2 | +8.3 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 24% | 29% | 18% | +8.1 | -7.4 | -3.6 | +2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 35% | 20% | 26% | 19% | +48.9 | -14.4 | -17.9 | -16.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 16,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 86% | 4% | 5% | 4% | -48.5 | -5.0 | -1.3 | +54.8 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 30% | 8% | 11% | 51% | +13.6 | -8.8 | -3.0 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 45% | 2% | 9% | 44% | +18.7 | +0.5 | -14.1 | -5.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 75% | 0% | 0% | 25% | +10.6 | -11.5 | +11.5 | -10.5 |