Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/12 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+48.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +59.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +21.9 | -7.7 | -6.4 | -7.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 21% | 19% | 20% | +3.9 | -4.3 | +3.2 | -2.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 44% | 17% | 20% | 18% | -14.8 | -1.6 | +15.7 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 32% | 18% | 31% | 20% | -5.6 | -19.4 | +33.9 | -8.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 6% | 61% | 11% | -3.5 | +4.0 | -2.6 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 20% | 8% | 60% | 13% | -25.0 | +24.7 | +4.1 | -3.8 |
| South 1 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 15% | 68% | 9% | -13.5 | +23.8 | -5.0 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 32% | 60% | 6% | +33.9 | -20.0 | -2.5 | -11.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 17% | 62% | 6% | +8.3 | -5.2 | +0.7 | -3.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 3,900 | 18% | 13% | 65% | 5% | -4.7 | -5.0 | -0.6 | +10.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 9% | 68% | 9% | -10.7 | -10.7 | -6.6 | +28.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Seiichi Kondo | 12% | 9% | 61% | 18% | +59.0 | -17.9 | -26.5 | -14.6 |