Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/12 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+48.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Kondo Seiichi, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +57.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 7,800 | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +19.9 | -5.3 | -8.6 | -6.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 41% | 20% | 20% | 19% | +4.7 | -3.5 | +1.6 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 5,200 from Date Arisa | 44% | 18% | 20% | 17% | -15.2 | -2.7 | +15.8 | +2.1 |
| East 2 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 18% | 30% | 21% | -6.6 | -16.7 | +33.2 | -9.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 21% | 7% | 61% | 11% | -4.5 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +2.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 18% | 8% | 62% | 13% | -23.2 | +24.2 | +2.5 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 15% | 67% | 10% | -13.6 | +23.6 | -3.0 | -7.0 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 31% | 62% | 6% | +32.4 | -17.9 | -3.6 | -10.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 13% | 18% | 63% | 6% | +10.4 | -9.0 | +1.1 | -2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 3,900 | 18% | 10% | 67% | 5% | -4.3 | -1.7 | -1.6 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 11% | 67% | 8% | -9.2 | -12.2 | -6.4 | +27.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Kondo Seiichi | 14% | 10% | 60% | 17% | +57.1 | -17.7 | -26.5 | -12.8 |