Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/12 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +41.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +12.1 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -3.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000 | 34% | 22% | 22% | 23% | +41.7 | -12.1 | -13.8 | -15.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 69% | 11% | 10% | 10% | +6.9 | +0.5 | -8.4 | +0.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 75% | 10% | 6% | 9% | +19.8 | -26.7 | +5.0 | +2.0 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 90% | 2% | 4% | 5% | -3.1 | -4.9 | +10.3 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 89% | 1% | 5% | 5% | -2.6 | +4.0 | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 87% | 2% | 6% | 5% | -10.8 | -3.8 | +17.2 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 79% | 1% | 14% | 6% | -2.7 | +30.6 | -18.1 | -9.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 7% | 7% | 5% | -1.7 | -5.2 | +5.1 | +1.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 80% | 6% | 9% | 6% | -9.5 | -11.0 | -11.9 | +32.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 5% | 8% | 19% | +0.9 | +5.4 | -4.1 | -2.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 5% | 7% | 16% | -1.5 | +2.8 | +2.7 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 73% | 6% | 8% | 13% | -9.6 | -17.0 | -9.8 | +36.4 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 55% | 0% | 3% | 41% | +20.9 | +8.4 | -20.4 | -8.9 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 84% | 0% | 0% | 16% | -2.4 | -13.8 | +7.9 | +8.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 78% | 0% | 0% | 23% | +8.9 | -7.6 | +17.0 | -18.4 |