Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/13 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 2: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +39.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -15.6 | -6.1 | +26.5 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 20% | 44% | 21% | -1.1 | +6.5 | -2.9 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 24% | 40% | 21% | -10.3 | +30.4 | -10.8 | -9.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 10% | 46% | 29% | 15% | -0.2 | -22.1 | +23.5 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 27% | 51% | 14% | -3.1 | +22.8 | -12.9 | -6.9 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 7% | 48% | 35% | 10% | -0.5 | -32.4 | +1.8 | +31.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 1,500 | 10% | 22% | 41% | 27% | -2.2 | -4.2 | -0.6 | +7.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 18% | 41% | 33% | +10.9 | -2.9 | -0.7 | -7.3 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 13% | 18% | 41% | 28% | -6.2 | +7.7 | +2.6 | -4.1 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 23% | 45% | 25% | -9.2 | -17.4 | -12.5 | +39.1 |
| South 3 | Yu Suzuki ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 2% | 7% | 23% | 69% | +0.5 | -6.3 | +7.1 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 4% | 29% | 65% | -4.3 | -1.6 | -8.2 | +14.1 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,400 | 0% | 1% | 8% | 91% | -8.3 | +10.7 | -1.9 | -0.5 |