Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/16 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+68.2pt). The game was decided in East 1: Aiko Hinata tsumo 16,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +40.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 16,000 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -22.8 | -8.9 | -9.1 | +40.9 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 10% | 15% | 15% | 60% | -1.8 | -6.1 | -5.8 | +13.7 |
| East 3 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 16,000 | 7% | 9% | 9% | 75% | +39.8 | -12.2 | -19.2 | -8.5 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 4,800 from Mari Takamiya | 26% | 5% | 4% | 65% | -1.6 | +2.6 | -8.9 | +7.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 71% | -2.3 | +7.4 | -4.7 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 1,500 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 74% | +6.4 | -0.9 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 6% | 1% | 68% | +16.6 | -0.4 | -9.7 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 40% | 5% | 1% | 54% | +10.4 | -0.5 | -6.3 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 52% | 3% | 0% | 45% | -5.8 | -7.4 | +0.8 | +12.4 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 1,300 from Yu Suzuki | 39% | 1% | 0% | 60% | -4.7 | -1.7 | +0.2 | +6.1 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,600 from Aiko Hinata | 30% | 0% | 0% | 70% | -2.6 | +3.6 | -2.8 | +1.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 0% | 0% | 79% | -7.1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | +6.1 |