Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+84.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Arisa Date ron 18,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +42.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +5.3 | -1.3 | -3.1 | -0.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 29% | 23% | 23% | 25% | -5.2 | +5.1 | +1.3 | -1.2 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 25% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +0.8 | -3.2 | +21.4 | -19.0 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 24% | 23% | 40% | 13% | -21.2 | +23.1 | +0.2 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 41% | 37% | 12% | +5.5 | -0.4 | +0.1 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 15% | 40% | 38% | 8% | +41.5 | -42.0 | -0.1 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 18,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 45% | 10% | 37% | 8% | +42.3 | +3.9 | -51.0 | +4.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 91% | 3% | 3% | 4% | +16.4 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -6.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | +13.5 | -4.8 | -4.2 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -9.9 | -3.9 | -5.7 | +19.5 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.7 | -17.9 | +21.8 | -2.2 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +0.5 | +28.1 | -28.4 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -3.9 | +16.6 | -3.0 | -9.7 |