Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+84.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Date Arisa ron 18,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +43.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +4.2 | -1.8 | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,000 from Date Arisa | 29% | 23% | 24% | 23% | -6.0 | +7.1 | -2.8 | +1.8 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 24% | 27% | 23% | 26% | +2.8 | -7.8 | +26.2 | -21.2 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 24% | 20% | 43% | 13% | -25.2 | +26.5 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 10% | 39% | 39% | 12% | +8.0 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 14% | 41% | 38% | 8% | +41.9 | -40.7 | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 18,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 46% | 11% | 36% | 7% | +43.9 | +3.4 | -52.0 | +4.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 92% | 4% | 1% | 3% | +15.3 | -4.4 | -5.3 | -5.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | +13.2 | -5.6 | -3.3 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -10.5 | -4.1 | -4.5 | +19.1 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.6 | -17.4 | +21.7 | -2.6 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 99% | 0% | 1% | 1% | +0.6 | +28.2 | -29.1 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -3.7 | +15.7 | -2.9 | -9.1 |