Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Regular Season

1/19 Game 1

Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+71.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +60.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Matsugase Takaya● Tojyo Rio● Shibukawa Namba● Hagiwara Masato0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Matsugase● Tojyo● Shibukawa● Hagiwara
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
East 1Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,00025%25%24%26%-6.6-1.9+11.5-3.0
East 2Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Matsugase Takaya20%23%33%24%-1.2+17.8-1.4-15.2
East 2, 1 honbaTojyo Rio tsumo 2,00019%35%31%15%+8.1-5.1-0.1-2.9
East 3Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,00024%30%32%14%+22.9-4.6-12.5-5.8
East 4Draw43%25%20%12%-3.0+2.6-3.3+3.7
East 4, 1 honbaDraw41%27%19%14%-1.0-1.7+6.6-4.0
South 1, 2 honbaTojyo Rio tsumo 7,80040%27%24%10%+28.8-10.3-11.2-7.3
South 1, 3 honbaMatsugase Takaya tsumo 4,00072%13%10%5%-3.8-7.1-3.1+14.0
South 2Shibukawa Namba tsumo 18,00071%10%10%8%-24.6+55.2-14.1-16.4
South 2, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba tsumo 3,90029%63%5%3%-7.8+11.3-3.1-0.4
South 2, 2 honbaTojyo Rio tsumo 16,00016%78%4%2%+50.1-37.3-6.3-6.5
South 3Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,00087%11%1%2%+0.5-3.3-16.2+19.0
South 4Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,00092%6%0%2%-25.0-26.3-9.5+60.8
South 4, 1 honbaMatsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio51%3%0%46%-40.1+4.8-0.2+35.5
South 4, 2 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio0%0%0%100%-20.6+20.8+0.8-1.0

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)