Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/19 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+71.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 24,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +60.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 23% | 24% | 26% | -8.7 | -2.8 | +11.1 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,800 from Takaya Matsugase | 20% | 22% | 32% | 26% | +1.9 | +18.0 | -0.1 | -19.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 33% | 31% | 14% | +5.7 | -4.1 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 31% | 32% | 14% | +21.9 | -2.5 | -14.7 | -4.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 27% | 19% | 12% | -3.4 | +2.4 | -1.1 | +2.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 30% | 18% | 13% | +0.2 | -1.9 | +5.4 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 10% | +27.8 | -11.1 | -8.2 | -8.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,000 | 71% | 14% | 11% | 4% | -3.0 | -5.6 | -5.3 | +13.9 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000 | 71% | 11% | 10% | 8% | -26.0 | +53.0 | -13.5 | -13.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,900 | 28% | 63% | 6% | 4% | -4.2 | +10.1 | -2.8 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 16,000 | 18% | 76% | 4% | 2% | +47.4 | -35.3 | -6.5 | -5.5 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 86% | 12% | 1% | 1% | +1.2 | -4.2 | -16.8 | +19.8 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 24,000 | 92% | 5% | 0% | 2% | -25.7 | -25.8 | -9.2 | +60.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 51% | 2% | 0% | 46% | -39.5 | +4.1 | 0.0 | +35.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -20.7 | +21.1 | +0.5 | -0.9 |