Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/19 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+71.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +60.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -6.6 | -1.9 | +11.5 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Matsugase Takaya | 20% | 23% | 33% | 24% | -1.2 | +17.8 | -1.4 | -15.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 35% | 31% | 15% | +8.1 | -5.1 | -0.1 | -2.9 |
| East 3 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 30% | 32% | 14% | +22.9 | -4.6 | -12.5 | -5.8 |
| East 4 | Draw | 43% | 25% | 20% | 12% | -3.0 | +2.6 | -3.3 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 41% | 27% | 19% | 14% | -1.0 | -1.7 | +6.6 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 7,800 | 40% | 27% | 24% | 10% | +28.8 | -10.3 | -11.2 | -7.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 4,000 | 72% | 13% | 10% | 5% | -3.8 | -7.1 | -3.1 | +14.0 |
| South 2 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 18,000 | 71% | 10% | 10% | 8% | -24.6 | +55.2 | -14.1 | -16.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 3,900 | 29% | 63% | 5% | 3% | -7.8 | +11.3 | -3.1 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 16,000 | 16% | 78% | 4% | 2% | +50.1 | -37.3 | -6.3 | -6.5 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 87% | 11% | 1% | 2% | +0.5 | -3.3 | -16.2 | +19.0 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000 | 92% | 6% | 0% | 2% | -25.0 | -26.3 | -9.5 | +60.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio | 51% | 3% | 0% | 46% | -40.1 | +4.8 | -0.2 | +35.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -20.6 | +20.8 | +0.8 | -1.0 |