Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/20 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +48.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 3,900 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +11.2 | -4.7 | -3.4 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 22% | 23% | 22% | -3.9 | +4.4 | -1.4 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 26% | 21% | 24% | -4.1 | +3.3 | +4.9 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 26% | 29% | 24% | 21% | +1.9 | -10.7 | +9.7 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 27% | 20% | 31% | 21% | +0.2 | +26.2 | -25.4 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 40% | 14% | 19% | -4.0 | -1.2 | -1.7 | +6.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 39% | 14% | 24% | +21.2 | -4.5 | -5.1 | -11.5 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 42% | 33% | 11% | 14% | -1.2 | +13.5 | -11.0 | -1.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 45% | 6% | 11% | -4.0 | +6.3 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 53% | 6% | 11% | 0.0 | +0.4 | +2.9 | -3.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 30% | 55% | 6% | 9% | -1.0 | +4.6 | -14.6 | +11.0 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 65% | 0% | 11% | -21.4 | -28.3 | -5.8 | +55.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 13% | 0% | 79% | -10.4 | +48.5 | -2.2 | -35.9 |