Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/24 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Nakabayashi Kei ron 18,000 from Honda Tomohiro, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +45.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maruyama Kanako ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | +29.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -28.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 49% | 20% | 21% | 10% | -0.6 | +0.9 | -19.5 | +19.2 |
| East 2 | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 49% | 22% | 12% | 18% | +2.2 | -2.8 | +19.4 | -18.8 |
| East 3 | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 2,700 | 52% | 18% | 20% | 10% | +11.4 | -1.4 | -4.8 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 18,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 64% | 15% | 13% | 7% | -3.2 | -41.2 | -0.7 | +45.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 4,000 | 58% | 3% | 12% | 26% | +1.4 | +7.6 | -1.7 | -7.3 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 63% | 4% | 12% | 20% | -6.7 | -3.9 | -4.8 | +15.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 55% | 3% | 9% | 33% | +4.4 | -5.8 | -0.4 | +1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 62% | 0% | 8% | 31% | -5.7 | -0.4 | +2.0 | +4.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 0% | 9% | 38% | -20.8 | -7.6 | +50.7 | -22.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 6,400 from Honda Tomohiro | 24% | 0% | 56% | 19% | -10.0 | -8.0 | -1.0 | +19.0 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 0% | 57% | 29% | -11.7 | -2.3 | -23.9 | +37.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 91% | -1.5 | -2.2 | -3.3 | +7.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -2.6 | -1.2 | +4.1 | -0.4 |