Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/24 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kei Nakabayashi ron 18,000 from Tomohiro Honda, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +41.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +30.3 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -26.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 47% | 22% | 20% | 12% | +0.6 | +0.4 | -19.8 | +18.8 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 48% | 21% | 12% | 19% | +0.5 | -1.8 | +21.7 | -20.3 |
| East 3 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 2,700 | 49% | 19% | 22% | 10% | +11.9 | -1.6 | -6.4 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 18,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 64% | 14% | 14% | 7% | +0.2 | -39.9 | -2.2 | +41.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 60% | 4% | 12% | 24% | -1.2 | +6.1 | -1.0 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 61% | 4% | 13% | 22% | -7.0 | -3.2 | -4.6 | +14.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 53% | 4% | 10% | 33% | +3.9 | -5.7 | +0.2 | +1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 0% | 9% | 32% | -4.1 | -1.6 | +2.4 | +3.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 0% | 10% | 37% | -19.7 | -7.2 | +49.3 | -22.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 6,400 from Tomohiro Honda | 25% | 0% | 55% | 19% | -11.0 | -7.5 | +0.1 | +18.4 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 0% | 58% | 27% | -11.5 | -2.5 | -25.3 | +39.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 0% | 6% | 91% | -0.9 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +6.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 3% | 96% | -3.3 | -1.0 | +4.4 | 0.0 |