Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/26 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+46.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +80.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -3.3 | -2.8 | +1.5 | +4.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 22% | 26% | 29% | -1.0 | -3.9 | +4.1 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 23% | 19% | 28% | 30% | -10.9 | -0.2 | -1.7 | +12.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 20% | 25% | 40% | +7.3 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 21% | 18% | 24% | 38% | -3.6 | -1.8 | +12.4 | -7.0 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 16% | 17% | 34% | 32% | -15.8 | -3.7 | -0.8 | +20.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 11% | 28% | 54% | -7.7 | +9.8 | -4.7 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 14% | 22% | 59% | +80.6 | -31.5 | -22.9 | -26.1 |