Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/26 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+69.9pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +27.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 24% | 27% | 24% | 25% | -8.0 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +8.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 26% | 25% | 30% | -7.2 | +1.2 | +4.4 | +1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 27% | 27% | 31% | -1.7 | +3.6 | -6.2 | +4.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,700 | 15% | 28% | 22% | 35% | +11.1 | -6.5 | -1.7 | -2.9 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 24% | 23% | 34% | +11.2 | -3.3 | -8.4 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 9,600 from Arisa Date | 28% | 21% | 17% | 34% | +1.5 | -28.4 | +0.1 | +26.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 7% | 14% | 57% | -11.3 | -4.7 | -10.9 | +27.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 9% | 2% | 5% | 85% | -8.6 | -8.9 | -7.5 | +25.0 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 1% | 98% | -0.7 | +2.7 | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 0% | 0% | 98% | -2.5 | +23.6 | -22.3 | +1.1 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | +3.0 | -10.4 | +6.8 | +0.6 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.5 | -8.9 | +25.9 | -12.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -9.3 | -2.8 | +13.4 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | -2.0 | -1.0 | +4.5 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,800 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -5.1 | -4.6 | +12.3 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | -0.9 | -0.3 | +3.4 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 92% | +0.1 | -3.6 | -4.6 | +8.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.4 | +0.2 | -1.0 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +15.1 | -5.1 | +0.8 | -10.8 |