Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/27 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina ron 2,900 from Okada Sayaka, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +23.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 3,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -2.1 | +10.1 | -8.6 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 32% | 19% | 26% | +3.1 | +2.6 | -3.1 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 33% | 19% | 24% | -17.1 | +44.8 | -12.9 | -14.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,400 from Murakami Jun | 8% | 74% | 8% | 10% | +2.6 | +7.1 | -1.9 | -7.7 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 8% | 80% | 5% | 7% | -3.5 | -1.5 | +7.8 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Draw | 6% | 82% | 6% | 6% | +3.3 | -1.6 | +2.0 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Draw | 8% | 79% | 9% | 5% | -4.7 | -2.6 | +4.1 | +3.2 |
| East 3, 6 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 77% | 11% | 6% | -8.6 | -3.3 | -15.1 | +27.0 |
| East 4 | Murakami Jun tsumo 3,900 | 6% | 76% | 4% | 15% | -4.3 | -3.0 | -5.5 | +12.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho | 4% | 71% | 5% | 21% | -4.7 | -2.5 | +2.4 | +4.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 4% | 66% | 4% | 26% | -2.4 | +4.6 | +18.9 | -21.1 |
| South 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 3% | 77% | 9% | 11% | -6.5 | -14.6 | +21.9 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 61% | 24% | 14% | -5.5 | -14.2 | -9.2 | +29.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 43% | 18% | 39% | -1.4 | -2.9 | +7.8 | -3.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,900 from Okada Sayaka | 1% | 40% | 24% | 36% | +0.3 | -21.2 | +23.1 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 16% | 51% | 33% | +1.4 | -1.5 | +4.1 | -4.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,300 from Murakami Jun | 0% | 13% | 62% | 24% | -1.1 | -12.8 | +20.8 | -6.9 |