Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/27 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +23.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -2.4 | +8.9 | -8.1 | +1.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 31% | 21% | 26% | +1.5 | +4.7 | -2.9 | -3.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 34% | 19% | 24% | -13.9 | +43.8 | -15.4 | -14.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,400 from Jun Murakami | 9% | 74% | 7% | 10% | -0.3 | +8.4 | +1.9 | -9.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 82% | 6% | 5% | -2.0 | -1.2 | +5.3 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 83% | 6% | 5% | +2.6 | -3.3 | +1.5 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 79% | 8% | 6% | -3.4 | -2.4 | +5.3 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 6 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 76% | 11% | 5% | -8.4 | -3.3 | -16.3 | +27.9 |
| East 4 | Jun Murakami tsumo 3,900 | 5% | 76% | 5% | 14% | -5.1 | -3.7 | -4.9 | +13.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 4% | 70% | 4% | 22% | -4.3 | -1.6 | +0.1 | +5.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 3% | 67% | 3% | 27% | -1.8 | +4.9 | +19.8 | -22.9 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 4% | 77% | 8% | 11% | -7.2 | -16.1 | +22.9 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 61% | 23% | 15% | -5.0 | -12.9 | -8.7 | +26.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 44% | 19% | 36% | -1.3 | -4.0 | +6.8 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada | 1% | 38% | 24% | 37% | -0.3 | -19.9 | +23.7 | -3.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 17% | 50% | 32% | +1.6 | -2.6 | +2.5 | -1.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,300 from Jun Murakami | 0% | 14% | 60% | 26% | -1.1 | -12.6 | +22.2 | -8.5 |